Usually two or three scenarios are developed to estimate the future workforce demand, a baseline scenario and one or two alternative scenarios. The latest scenario regarding an increase of immigration which results in the growth of labour force by 10 000 compared to the baseline scenario.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
“Education, Training and Demand for Labour in Finland by 2025”, section “Alternative scenarios for development of the economic structure by 2025”, p. 28.
An example:
- Basic scenario. The employment rate is expected to end up at 72 %, with the GDP growth is leveling at 1,7%. Considerable growth is expected in the GDP share and the workforce share of the social and health services.
- Target scenario. Compared to the basic scenario, the Finnish economy is expected to perform better.One of the presumptions is that demand for export will continue to increase also in the future. The GDP is expected to increase 2,3% during the last years of the forecasting period, the employment rate is expected to rise to 75 % and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4 %. The need for social and health care services and the demand for social and health care workforce are expected to rise, but to a lower extent than in the basic scenario.
- SOME scenario. Regarding the health and social care services, the SOME scenario is based on expenditure projections by the MoSocH. The demand growth for health workforce is largely similar to that in the target scenario.
These alternative scenarios have not considered detailed differences (eg. different skill-mixes) in the health workforce developments. The main difference is the assumption about the demand for health care and the corresponding effects on workforce.
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