Forecasting model: Denmark Scenario analysis

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For dental professions: different scenarios for the supply are explored on the basis of changed training capacity. It is for example modelled what impact it would have if 10 or 20 more dentists per year are educated.

For medical doctors no alternative scenario is developed at the moment. However in the coming update of the model it’s planned to add scenarios influencing the supply.

In the current forecast for doctors and medical specialists a small reduction in the number of medical specialists in general practice, occupational medicine, clinical biochemistry, psychiatry, public health medicine and thoracic surgery until the year 2020 is expected.

For all specialties (thoracic surgery not included) an increase in the number of specialists in the period 2012-2035 is expected. For 11 specialties more than twice as many specialists are expected in 2035 compared to 2012. Within some specialties even a tripling or quadrupling is expected. The increase in medical specialists is primarily due to:

  • Increased capacity in the postgraduate education;
  • Changes in retirement age;
  • Reduction of the time spent from being registered doctor to obtaining a specialists degree;
  • Immigration.

 

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