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Main aspects:
- Denmark has chosen a simple forecasting model combining a quantitative and qualitative approach;
- The model is quite cheap. The Danish Health and Medicines Authority (DHMA) uses approximately 0,25-0,5 FTE per year doing the modeling (not taking into account the time spent from the stakeholders and the statistical analyst placed at Statens Seruminstitut);
- At the same time the model is simple, easy to update and the assumptions in the forecasting model are re-assessed in light of changing circumstances, new data, new policies and programs;
- There is a high degree of stakeholder involvement in the development and adjustment of the forecasting model, so the process of forecasting and setting the number of postgraduate training posts is very transparent;
- The supply forecasting model used for the four professions (doctors, dentists, dental hygienists and clinical dental technicians) is basically the same;
- The HWF forecasting model produces different scenarios based on different pattern values (i.e. university training capacity and retirement patterns) for the supply of dentists, dental hygienists and clinical dental technicians. However, for the coming supply forecast, they plan on implementing scenarios also for doctors;
- For doctors, they assume there are imbalances at the starting point, conversely for dentists, dental specialists, dental hygienists and clinical dental technicians a current equilibrium between supply and demand is assumed.
Download the document [PDF 376 KB] (Forecasting Model in Denmark)