The Belgian forecasting model looks at both demand and supply of health workforce:
- The model estimates trends in the supply of health workforce, factoring in multiple scenarios regarding various levels of inflows in the workforce;
- On the demand side the model takes in consideration the evolution of demand based on health expenditures and the ageing of the population.
IN DETAILS
Essential in the correct functioning of the Belgian forecasting model is a precise definition of this starting stock. Exact information about size and composition of the current workforce is a sine qua non condition for reliable forecasting.
This starting stock is then modified by inflow and outflow. In a workforce model, inflows are define as new graduates entering the labor pool, immigration, extra flows (e.g. people entering health sector from other sectors mid-career). Outflow is determined by survival rate, halting of activities, emigration, etc. Expected evolutions about future inflows (e.g. education and migration) and outflows (e.g. emigration and retirement) of the profession and future level of activity are used to forecast the future levels of the (active) workforce.
In combination with the projected population evolution, the Belgian forecasting model also produces expected densities (number of health professionals per 1000 inhabitants).
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
- http://www.health.fgov.be/eportal/Healthcare/Consultativebodies/Planningcommission/18070759_FR
- http://www.euhwforce.eu/web_documents/JAHWF_130521_WP6_workshop/JAHWF_130527_WP6DOC_Eindproduct_FR_Gegevenswoordenboek_geharmoniseerdeplanningsmodel080526.pdf
- “Belgian Harmonized Mathematical Planning Model (BHMPM)”, Pieter-Jan Miermans.
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