Forecasting model: England Forecasting approach

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The forecasting model looks both demand and supply of health workforce.

The forecasting approach is different for the different professions forecasted (110 different roles).

However demand and supply are always take into account. Workforce planners model demand and supply variables and assess if the current training volume is likely to produce under or over supply if not adjusted.

Factors influencing demand include:

  • Changing patterns of disease;
  • Developments in technology;
  • Introductions of new professional or regulatory standards;
  • Financial constraints;
  • New roles substituting current roles.

Factors influencing supply include:

  • Current workforce levels;
  • Rates of attrition from training courses;
  • Rates of staff turnover;
  • Retirement age;
  • Inflow and outflow from other countries and healthcare employers.