Migration inflow and migration outflows are quantitative variables included in the Danish forecasting model.
The forecast however doesn’t take into account whether the function of the health care system is dependent on the immigration.
The quantitative data on migration inflow and outflow is discussed in the Planning and Forecasting Committees subcommittee where it’s decided whether some adjustments are necessary.
- Migration inflow
- is estimated on the basis of past years trend in how many foreign educated doctors begins a specialist education in Denmark and how many foreign educated doctors that receive a specialist degree on the basis of a specialist education completed in Denmark;
- the source is a combination of reports from the Regional Councils of Postgraduate Medical Education and data from the Authorization register. The Authorization Register contains information regarding country of education. However the forecast model doesn’t take the specific country of education into account.
- Migration outflow
- is estimated on the basis of past years trend in doctors educated in Denmark leaving Denmark after completion of their university degree. The variable is broken down by nationality since there are a bigger percentage of doctors with a foreign nationality educated in Denmark leaving Denmark than doctors of Danish nationality educated in Denmark leaving Denmark.
- the source is the Authorization Register.
Not all foreign educated persons who gets registered as a health person in Denmark has a social security number at the time of registration at the Danish Health and Medicines Authority. Upon moving to Denmark they sometimes forget to inform us of their social security number. The lack of social security number means that we can’t know for sure whether they actually come to Denmark, if they get a job and for how long a period of time they stay. This makes the modeling of migration difficult.
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