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The definition of a forecasting model and its implementation are core activities inside the planning process. The forecasting model and its results (projections’ and scenarios’ construction), allowing the instauration of a political debate with the stakeholders’ involvement, represent an essential instrument to support policy makers’ decisions and actions. Defining the model of forecasting to be used is an important, but also a very complex, task to achieve.
The different aspects to be considered are: variables on supply and demand side, the algorithm to join them, the method to be used for the definition of the estimations, the assumptions to start from, the modalities for the presentation of the results (one or more scenarios) etc.
Largely, each method can be linked to qualitative or quantitative methodologies. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches to health workforce planning have advantages and disadvantages. Individual methods should be chosen based on specific aims in the planning process. Beyond individual methods, however, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches can strengthen the planning system.
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