ASSESSING CURRENT SITUATION

Back to the IMPLEMENTATION PATH

At its core, HWF planning consists in forecasting the evolution in the supply of and in the demand for healthcare services, the two main drivers of the healthcare market in any of its possible forms:

  • A decentralized and free market;
  • A government-sponsored insured market, with both private and public run hospitals, or a centrally planned national healthcare system.

Healthcare workforce forecast models function by projecting supply, demand, or both.

Ideally, the starting point of HWF forecasting would be to assess the present situation by performing a gap analysis of the de facto supply and demand in order to find current imbalances, as these imbalances profoundly influence the outcome of the projections.

When planning, always keep in mind:

  • Imbalances in the health workforce, so from an economic perspective;
  • The cost of ignoring initial imbalances;
  • Typologies of imbalances.

So:

  1. Forecasting is one of the fundamental tools of sound HWF planning. For the forecasting model to be accurate, it needs to properly account for current imbalances between supply and demand for healthcare services. Future initiatives in HWF planning need to properly assess these potential imbalances.
  2. Failure to account for imbalances has several consequences, putting patient safety in jeopardy. Identifying shortages or surpluses of healthcare professionals is, therefore, critical not only for good HWF planning, but also to ensure a functional healthcare system.
  3. There are several indicators that can be used as proxies to identify imbalances. Some can be retrieved from economic indicators; others concern operational activity of the healthcare providers. Nevertheless, they should always be interpreted with care and continuously monitored, as statistical anomalies may lead to erroneous interpretations.
  4. It can be argued that the consequences of a shortage far exceed those of a surplus. Therefore, if a policy is to be enacted, a shortage should be altogether avoided, even if it comes at the cost of a potential surplus.

Download the document [PDF 382 KB] (Assessing Current Situation)