Forecasting model: Norway Scenario analysis

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HELSEMOD include different scenarios on future GNP growth:

  • The high growth alternative;
  • The intermediate (reference alternative);
  • The low growth alternative.

In addition there are three scenarios with variations in

  • Changes in student entrance into education each year;
  • The job opportunities in society;
  • Technological changes.

As to the magnitude of migration of health personnel this is taken into consideration in the stock calculations. There are great variations between regions on migrant HWF, for example near 50 percent of the personnel in caring services in Oslo.

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