Forecasting model: Belgium Scenario analysis

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The planning systems allows to create all the desired scenarios. It works like that:

  • The working group of the profession discusses which assumptions to use for each scenario;
  • The data analyst creates these parameters and makes them available in the planning
    application;
  • Within the application users can combine all the available parameters of the different
    scenarios into a new ‘original’ scenario.

Anyway, for each planned professions, the specific working group decide the number
of scenarios to develop.

For example:

  • For physiotherapists, the working group has decided to only develop one baseline scenario.
  • For nurses three scenarios are developed: a baseline scenario and two alternative scenarios
    (high and low scenario) with different assumptions. The baseline scenario is defined as
    the most likely scenario of future development. The alternative scenarios are based on
    different hypothesis on level of inflow, activity and demand. Thus, the model provides an
    upper and a lower limit between which future developments will take place.

 

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