The forecasting methods used are a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.
On the supply submodel, the variables used are quantitative (numerus clausus, number of professionals by specialty, age group and sex; the number of training vacancies for each specialty; the mandatory retirement age; the equivalent full-time ratio; and the immigration rate by specialty).
The demand submodel use quantitative variables (demographic estimations or normative standards for each specialty or group of specialties), but mainly qualitative variables (region demands noticed by the regional health services; trends in demand defined through a non-structured interview to panel of experts).
IN DETAIL
The qualitative methods used is ad hoc non-structured interview to panel of experts (2009).
The participants in this group of experts were:
- Subgroup of more than 20 experts in HWF planning, catalogue of health services, health plans and health statistics, that work in the Ministry of Health
- Subgroup of experts in HWF planning and management from 11 autonomous communities.
- 43 medical specialists from clinical care practice, representing each of the existing medical specialties.
Each of the experts was asked to weight the trend in demand for every one of the medical specialties in the 2009-2025 period. The obtained outcome was having the demand of medical specialties classified into the following categories:
- Crescent;
- Crescent-stable;
- Stable;
- Declining.
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