The forecasting method used is a systems dynamics approach. It was developed to quantify the future demand and supply of doctors and dentists currently used only for medical doctors but now the approach is being used by the CfWI to develop additional supply and demand models for other workforces across the health and social care systems, including nursing, midwifery, pharmacy and a range of medical specialties.
IN DETAILS
“Due to the complexity of the model scope and scale it was decided that the system dynamics approach was best suited to meeting the modelling requirements. System dynamics is a simulation method that enables the behaviour of complex systems over time to be understood and simulated. System dynamics models represents changes to a system over time by using the analogy of system flows accumulating and depleting over time in stocks. Historically, the CfWI has developed Excel-based models to represent these complex systems. The system dynamics approach meant that robust, evidence-based supply and demand models could be created to test potential policies and their impact. It also meant the model was “transparent” and enabled expertise of several hundred stakeholders from the healthcare system to be synthesised. As a result of these benefits, the system dynamics approach is considered fundamental to the CfWI’s ongoing workforce modelling strategy”. “Robust workforce planning: Medical model technical description”, p. 2.
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