The forecasting model looks both demand and supply of health workforce.
It allows to develop different scenarios using different hypothesis and it calculates the needed influx into specialist training (a specified range is calculated for each specialism).
- The forecasting process starts out with estimating the present demand, expressed in FTE supply, by correcting the present demand with unmet demand or abundance of demand.
- Then, they make a projection of the demand 18 years later, by taking into account demographic, epidemiological, and socio-cultural developments mixed with policies.
- Based hereon, they develop different scenarios, using different estimates for efficiency, horizontal and vertical substitution, professional developments, and working hours changes.
- For each of the scenario’s, they calculate the needed influx into specialist training, given the expected retirement of the present supply, the supply in training at the moment, the immigration of specialists, the feminization, and the yield of the training.
- The experts decide on which of the scenarios are the most likely. This results in a specified range for the needed influx in medical training for each specialism.
- This range is presented to government with unanimous support from health insurance companies, training institutes, and professionals (http://www.capaciteitsorgaan.nl/Portals/0/capaciteitsorgaan/publicaties/capaciteitsplan2010/0%20Capaciteitsplan%20Hoofdrapport%20Engels.pdf).
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