The forecasting model follows a need based approach and produces demand side projections regarding demand for new labour for 28 industries and occupational groups in each of them as well as supply side projections for intake needs in different fields and levels of education.
The macroeconomic forecasting (VATTAGE model) is based on projections of:
- The employment rate;
- The GPD growth;
- The social security development.
The “demand for labour” forecasting (Mitenna model) is based on the projections regarding demand for new labour and takes into account the changes in the occupational structures of the industries, natural wastage, total supply of labour and the efficiency and effectiveness parameters (the completion rate, the proportion of multiple education, the labour force participation rate) for the education system.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
- The VATTAGE is a model used in VATT, the Government Institute for Economic Research, to study the effects of tax policies and environmental policies on the economy. The model can also be used to study scenarios concerning the driving forces of economic growth and employment. See http://www.vatt.fi/file/vatt_publication_pdf/t150.pdf.
- The Mitenna model provides long-term data on changes in demand for labour, natural wastage of labour, demand for skilled labour and educational needs. The anticipation process in the Mitenna model anticipates demand for and supply of labour in the target year and reconciles these factors. The anticipation method is divided into two sections. The first focuses on the needs of the world of work. This involves anticipation of demand for new labour, i.e. the amount of labour and the types of educational qualifications required by economic life over a certain anticipation period. The calculation consists of forecasts of changes in demand for labour and estimates of labour wastage. The second section concerns the supply of labour. New labour is mainly supplied by new young age groups. The unemployed labour force also adds to supply. In addition, supply of labour is influenced by labour force participation rates, i.e. the proportion of graduates entering the labour force. The effects of net immigration and age group forecasts are also taken into account in anticipation of the total supply of labour. Main phases of the anticipation process in the Mitenna model can be found in Figure 3, p. 20 in http://www.oph.fi/download/144754_Education_training_and_demand_for_labour_in_Finland_by_2025_2.pdf.
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