Forecasting Model in The Netherlands

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Main aspects:

  • The Dutch forecasting model produces different scenarios based on different pattern values and any parameter can be changed in the model, e.g. the percentage of men entering the training programs;
  • It considers a high and a low value for a number of the parameters of yearly change rated by the experts;
  • The different scenarios are based on 6 incremental scenarios with low values and two scenarios with high values for the parameters;
  • All scenarios are based on either an ongoing trend or a trend that ceases after 10 years;
  • Starting with the unmet demand, three parameters are taken into account: the demographic parameter, the epidemiological parameter, and the socio-cultural parameter.

Good practice video interview

Good practice: Forecasting the demand for dentist in the Dutch planning system

Expert: Victor Slenter | Medical specialist Society & Health | CEO | Areas of special interest: Specialists for the Mentally Disabled/ Medical Graduates/ Public Health Officers

Helpful tips:

  • In addition to the indicator “number of visits to the dentist” for the forecasts on the future demand, it would be very useful to get more insight in the average “chair time” a patient has in the dentist’s chair yearly.
  • For epidemiology, a better understanding of the dental health of adults could improve the rational evaluation of this parameter. The structural monitoring of dental health amongst juveniles should be expanded to adults again.
  • Socio-cultural changes can be examined by using consumer panels. The ACMMP had used this technique for the projections on dental demand on the case of vertical substitution of dentists by oral hygienists and it is promising, but basically it is a “what if…” technique.
  • If the population composition is straight, one might consider abolishing age-specific utilization ratios for a quick implementation. However, usually the population is not straight; there is e.g. substantial immigration/ emigration or there is significant ageing of the population. In that case, a survey amongst a small part of the population can yield the needed data for a quick implementation within six months.
  • Sometimes, epidemiologic data can be retrieved from monitors or scientific research in the Member State.
  • Considering that socio-cultural changes are only rarely documented for demand purposes, the expert opinion can be leading in this field.

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